PPP (D)PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 22 to June 23. A total of 980 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of a single poll, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check whether the results from a single poll are in agreement with benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Results vs. Other polls
Looking at the Pennsylvania polling average, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.5%. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the combined PollyVote is 5.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.