On June 27, OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans.
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 20 to June 20, among a random sample of 1060 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll, as they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check whether the results from a single poll are in line with benchmark forecasts.
To allow for comparing the poll results with benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Arizona polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.2%. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 43.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. This means that the combined PollyVote is 9.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.