PPP (D)PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the GOP.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically gained similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is considered critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
According to the results, 44.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 22 to June 23 among 708 registered voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine whether the results from a single poll are in line with benchmark forecasts.
To make the poll results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.