Florida: 4-point lead for Clinton in new CBS News/YouGov poll
On June 27, CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republican Party.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
According to the results, 44.0% of respondents will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 21 to June 24 among 1192 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to compare the poll results to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. In the most recent CBS News/YouGov poll on May 23 Clinton obtained only 50.6%, while Trump obtained 49.4%.
Comparison to other polls
The latest polling average in Florida sees Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's polling average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the PollyVote is 4.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.