In the latest update, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will garner 52.1% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.9% for Trump.
This is what the component methods predict
Polly's component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now in the lead by 51.8%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.4% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.2% of the vote.