TPM Poll Tracker poll: Clinton with 5-point lead
Results of a new national poll carried out by TPM Poll Tracker were released on May 16. The poll asked interviewees for whom they would vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republicans nominated Donald Trump.
Of those who answered the question, 45.9% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.7% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field . The sample size was participants.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of individual polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at aggregated polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
To be able to compare the poll results to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52,4% for Clinton and 47,6% for Trump. On May 15 Clinton obtained only 51.9% in the TPM Poll Tracker poll and Trump obtained 48.1%.
Results in comparison to other polls
The latest polling average sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the TPM Poll Tracker poll Clinton's polling average is 0.9 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.6 points above her polling numbers.