TPM Poll Tracker published the results of a new national poll on May 18. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Of those who responded, 44.1% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.7% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump. According to the results, both candidates can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 44.1% of the vote.
The poll was conducted participants.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use aggregated polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50,2 % for Clinton and 49,8 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. In the most recent TPM Poll Tracker poll on May 16 Clinton received 52.4%, while Trump received only 47.6%.
Results vs. Other polls
If we look at the polling average, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.6%. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the TPM Poll Tracker poll.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.3 points above her polling numbers.