TPM Poll Tracker published the results of a new national poll on June 7. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
The results show that 43.8% of participants will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.6% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out with respondents.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check whether the results from a single poll are comparable to benchmark forecasts.
To make the poll results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump. In the most recent TPM Poll Tracker poll on June 6 Clinton obtained 52.7%, while Trump obtained only 47.3%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the TPM Poll Tracker poll.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 0.2 points below her polling numbers.