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270 to win poll: Trump trails by a clear margin


On June 26, 270 to win released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the GOP.

The results show that 0.5% of interviewees intend to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 0.4% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted with respondents.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine whether a poll's results match other benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. For comparison: Only 53.7% was gained by Clinton in the 270 to win poll on June 22, for Trump this result was 46.4%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.3%. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the 270 to win poll.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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