New 270 to win poll shows Trump trailing by 7 points
Results of a new national poll carried out by 270 to win were distributed on June 22. The poll asked participants for whom they would vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
Of those who replied, 0.5% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 0.4% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted , among a random sample of participants.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check whether the results from a single poll are comparable to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.1% of the major two-party vote in the latest polling average. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the 270 to win poll.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.4 points below her polling numbers.