On June 22, 270 to win released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans.
According to the results, 0.5% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 0.4% indicated that they would cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field . The sample size was participants.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate substantial bisincees. At least, one should examine whether the results from a single poll are comparable to benchmark forecasts.
To compare the poll results to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at the polling average, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. Compared to her numbers in the 270 to win poll Clinton's polling average is 0.6 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below her polling numbers.