In the latest forecast, Polly concludes that Clinton will achieve 52.2% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.8% for Trump.
What Polly's component methods predict
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.8%.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 48.2% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.