Results of a new national poll administered by Election Projection were circulated on June 20. The poll asked participants for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
Of those who responded, 51.7% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.3% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted , among a random sample of participants.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on aggregated polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to allow for comparing the poll results with forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. On June 16 Clinton obtained only 52.9% in the Election Projection poll and Trump obtained 47.1%.
Results in comparison to other polls
The latest polling average has Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Election Projection poll.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.8 points below her polling numbers.