On June 23, Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the GOP.
According to the results, 44.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between June 18 and June 22. The sample size was 1339 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at aggregated polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump. In the latest Reuters poll on June 16 Clinton received only 56.2%, while Trump received 43.8%.
Comparison to other polls
The latest polling average has Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Reuters poll Clinton's polling average is 3.3 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.