270 to win poll: Trump behind by 7 points

On June 22, 270 to win released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the GOP.

The results show that 0.5% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 0.4% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted , among a random sample of participants.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should consult aggregated polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

To be able to compare the poll results to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 53,7% for Clinton and 46,4% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the 270 to win poll Clinton's polling average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below her polling numbers.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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