CNBC published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
According to the results, 40.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 11 to June 13 among 801 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at aggregated polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Results vs. Other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.8%. In comparison to her numbers in the CNBC poll Clinton's polling average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.