Today, Polly predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.4% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.6% for Trump.
A look at Polly's components
The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 55.8% of the vote.