Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome
The combined PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now in the lead by 51.8%.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.2% of the vote.