Results of a new national Umfrage carried out by Monmouth were distributed on June 20. The Umfrage asked participants for whom they would vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
The results show that 49.0% of participants indicated that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 15 to June 19, among a random sample of 721 participants. The error margin is +/-3.7 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at aggregated polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump. On March 24 Clinton received 55.8% in the Monmouth Umfrage and Trump received only 44.2%.
Comparison to other Umfrage
The latest polling average sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Monmouth Umfrage. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The Umfrage compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.