Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.3% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.8% for Trump.
What Polly's component methods predict
There is a consensus currently dominating the three available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.4% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 56.0% of the vote.