Polly today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump.
Looking at Polly's components
The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.4% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 55.6% of the vote.