Reuters published the results of a new national poll on June 16. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Of those who replied, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 11 to June 15, among a random sample of 1323 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of individual polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check whether the results from a single poll are in line with benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.2% for Clinton and 43.8% for Trump. To compare: Only 55.3% was obtained by Clinton in the Reuters poll on June 9, for Trump this result was 44.7%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.0% of the two-party vote according to the latest polling average. This value is 3.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Reuters poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.