Results of a new national poll administered by Rasmussen were announced on June 16. The poll asked respondents for whom they would vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republicans nominated Donald Trump.
According to the results, 44.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 14 to June 15. A total of 1000 respondents responded. The margin of error is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine whether a poll's results are in line with benchmark forecasts.
To allow for comparing the poll results with forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 53.0% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump. On June 9 Clinton obtained only 52.5% in the Rasmussen poll and Trump obtained 47.5%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at the polling average, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Rasmussen poll Clinton's polling average is 0.1 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.