Results of a new national poll carried out by Economist were published. The poll asked participants for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% indicated that they would cast a ballot for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 2 to June 5 with 1636 participants. The error margin is +/-3.6 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at aggregated polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Economist poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.