Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will gain 51.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 48.1% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the four available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton. Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.4%. With a vote share of 54.4% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.