Bloomberg* released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the GOP.
The results show that 49.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 10 to June 13, among a random sample of 750 participants. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use aggregated polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
In order to compare the poll results to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 57.0% for Clinton and 43.0% for Trump.
Comparison to polling averages
Clinton can currently count on 52.8% of the major two-party vote according to the latest polling average. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Bloomberg* poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 5.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.