Polly the parrot today predicts a national two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton and 48.1% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the four available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton. Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.4%. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 54.5% of the vote.