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Methods widely agree on the election outcome


PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now leading with 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 52.4% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.5% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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