Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

Polly the parrot today predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now leading with 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 52.4% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.8% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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