Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome
Polly the parrot today predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now leading with 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 52.4% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.8% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.