New Reuters poll shows Clinton with 10.6-point lead
By Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
According to the results, 42.0% of participants indicated to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 4 to June 8, among a random sample of 1440 participants. Given the poll's error margin of +/-2.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine whether the results from a single poll are in agreement with benchmark forecasts.
In order to allow for comparing the poll results with forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to averages of other polls
Looking at the polling average, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Reuters poll, Clinton's polling average is 2.9 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.
