Methods widely agree on the election outcome

In today's update, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will gain 52.3% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.8% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.9%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 52.4%, are the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 56.6% of the vote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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