IBD poll: Trump trails by 5.8 points
By IBD published the results of a new national poll on June 6. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
The results show that 45.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from May 31 to June 5, among a random sample of 908 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should look at aggregated polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To be able to compare the poll results to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. In the most recent IBD poll on April 29 Clinton obtained 54.0%, while Trump obtained only 46.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.2%. Compared to her numbers in the IBD poll, Clinton's polling average is 0.7 percentage points lower. Clinton's lead is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.
