FOX published the results of a new national poll on June 9. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 5 to June 8. A total of 1004 participants responded. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use aggregated polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
In order to be able to compare the poll results to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 51.9% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. In the most recent FOX poll on May 18 Clinton received only 48.3%, while Trump received 51.7%.
Results compared to polling averages
Clinton can currently count on 52.8% of the two-party vote according to the latest polling average. Relative to her numbers in the FOX poll, Clinton's polling average is 0.9 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.