Results of a new poll conducted by PPP (D) were distributed on June 9. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republicans nominated Donald Trump.
According to the results, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump can draw on equal levels of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from June 3 to June 5 among 1106 registered voters. Given the poll’s error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of individual polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at aggregated polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates’ raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. For comparison: Only 48.9% was gained by Clinton in the PPP (D) poll on March 23, for Trump this result was 51.1%.
Results vs. Combined polls
If we look at the polling average in Pennsylvania, ‘s two-party vote share is currently at 47.7%. When compared to the average results of other poll Clinton performed worse with 2.3 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 2.3 percentage points. This deviation is within the poll’s margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts to gain 43.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Clinton has 6.5 percentage points less and Trump has 6.5 percentage points more when results are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Pennsylvania. Again, a look at the poll’s error margin reveals that this difference is significant.