PPP (D) published the results of a new poll on June 8. In this poll, participants from Florida were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Historically, Florida has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular importance.
The results show that 44.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between June 2 and June 5. The sample size was 737 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. On April 27 Clinton received only 48.9% in the PPP (D) poll and Trump received 51.1%.
Results compared to other polls
The most recent polling average in Florida sees Trump at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the PPP (D) poll. Trump's lead is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.7% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.9 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.