In the latest update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will achieve 53.3% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.7% for Trump. Over the past 68 days, Polly's prediction been looking better for Clinton, she has since gained 0.2 percentage points.
What the components predict
The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently leading with 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 59.5% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.