As of today, Polly concludes that Clinton will garner 53.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.4% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend over the past 68 days, in which she gained an additional 0.4 percentage points.
This is what Polly's components say
The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five anticipate a victory for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.7%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that quantitative index models, with a predicted vote share of 53.3%, are the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 60.6% of the vote.