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Experts see Democrats’ lead narrowing to 5 points


The Pollyvote team has completed its sixth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late May survey, conducted between May 29 and 31, 13 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

All but one responding experts expected a Democratic win. The average expert forecast for the Democratic share of the two-party vote was 52.4%, compared to 47.6% for the Republicans.

The predicted Democratic vote share is thus 0.8 percentage points lower than in the previous survey, conducted in late April, when the mean expert experts had predicted a vote share of 53.2%.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.

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