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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


In the latest forecast, Polly predicts that Clinton will collect 52.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.5% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win. Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 52.2% vote share, aggregated polls are the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 56.0% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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