Latest Rasmussen poll: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
On June 2, Rasmussen released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the Republicans.
Of those who replied, 39.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump. The results show thatreal estate developer Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have identical levels of support, each with 39.0% of the vote.
The poll was in the field between May 31 and June 1. The sample size was 1000 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they often include substantial errors. Rather, one should check whether a poll's results match other benchmark forecasts.
To make the poll results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.7 % for Clinton and 49.4 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to aggregated polls
The most recent polling average sees Clinton at 51.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Rasmussen poll, Clinton's polling average is 0.9 percentage points higher. Clinton's lead is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.