In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will collect 53.2% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.8% for Trump. For the last 65 days, the PollyVote forecast has been looking better for Clinton, she has since gained 0.05 percentage points.
What the component methods say
The component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now ahead by 52.1%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that quantitative index models, with a predicted vote share of 53.3%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.0% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.