As of today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will achieve 53.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.5% for Trump. Over the past 43 days, Polly's prediction been looking better for Clinton, she has since gained 0.25 percentage points.
This is what Polly's components predict
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.4% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.