Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

Today, Polly predicts that Clinton will end up with 53.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.5% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now ahead by 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.0% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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