Polly the parrot forecasts win for Clinton
The combined PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. For the last 65 days, the PollyVote forecast has been looking better for Clinton, she has since gained 0.20 percentage points.
What Polly's components expect
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently leading with 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 59.7% of the vote.