Clinton in the lead, according to today’s PollyVote forecast

Polly the parrot today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend for the last 67 days, in which she lost 0.05 percentage points.

What Polly's components expect

There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that quantitative index models, with a predicted vote share of 53.3%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 58.7% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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