Polly the parrot today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend for the last 67 days, in which she lost 0.05 percentage points.
What Polly's components expect
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that quantitative index models, with a predicted vote share of 53.3%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 58.7% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.