Today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will garner 53.9% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.1% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend over the past 54 days, in which she gained an additional 0.38 percentage points.
What Polly's component methods say
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now in the lead by 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 61.3% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.