The combined PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.4% for Clinton and 46.6% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend for the last 44 days, in which she gained an additional 0.14 percentage points.
What Polly's component methods say
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now ahead by 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 58.2% of the vote.