Polly the parrot today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently in the lead by 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 60.4% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.