Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

Polly the parrot today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently in the lead by 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 60.4% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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