Quinnipiac published the results of a new national poll on June 1. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between May 24 and May 30. The sample size was 1561 participants. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult aggregated polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To compare the poll results to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to combined polls
If we look at the polling average, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.2%. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.