Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome
In the latest update, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will garner 53.1% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 58.0% of the vote.